Denmark. Championship. 3rd Division

Sundby vs Holbaek B&I: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Sundbyvs

Holbaek B&I

Our predictionDraw

Confidence: High · 62/100

Score hint: 1-1

Our model leans the draw (51% probability), high confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+The odds point to a clear favourite.
−The head-to-head record favours Sundby (3-1-1).
−Recent form favours Sundby.
−Sundby have home advantage.

Win probabilities

1 · Sundby26%

Draw51%

2 · Holbaek B&I23%

1 · SundbyDraw2 · Holbaek B&I

Full team comparison →

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Sundby4.83+6.7%

1X2Holbaek B&I3.66-2.1%

1X2Draw1.70-4.6%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Recent form

SundbyDDWLW

Holbaek B&ILWLWL

Team strength rating

Sundby

Holbaek B&I

Most likely scorelines

1-112.5%

1-010.4%

0-18.9%

2-18.7%

1-27.5%

0-07.4%

Expected goals

1.40Sundby

1.20Holbaek B&I

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score53%

Match DNA

Sundby Holbaek B&I

Key points

The odds point to a clear favourite.
The head-to-head record favours Sundby (3-1-1).
Recent form favours Sundby.
Sundby have home advantage.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Draw1.70Avoid (-4.6%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	9	5	2
1	10	12	7	3
2	7	9	5	2
3	3	4	2
4	1	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Sundby and Holbaek B&I. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 26% for Sundby, 51% for the draw and 23% for Holbaek B&I.

Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.

Across the last 5 meetings, the record reads 3 Sundby wins, 1 draws and 1 Holbaek B&I wins. Recent scorelines: 2-0, 2-2, 2-0, 0-2, 1-0.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Sundby show D-D-W-L-W across their recent outings, while Holbaek B&I read L-W-L-W-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Sundby" (1X2): we rate it 26% versus the 19% implied by odds of 4.83, an edge of 6.7 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.