Mali Coura vs Bougouni: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Mali Couravs
BougouniOur model leans Mali Coura (53% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +Mali Coura have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Mali Coura have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Mali Coura and Bougouni. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 53% for Mali Coura, 9% for the draw and 38% for Bougouni.
Several signals point toward Mali Coura. The odds point to a clear favourite. Mali Coura have home advantage.
Across the last 1 meetings, the record reads 1 Mali Coura wins, 0 draws and 0 Bougouni wins. Recent scorelines: 0-3.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Mali Coura show L-D-D-D-L across their recent outings, while Bougouni read L-W-L-W-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 51%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Mali Coura or Bougouni?
Our model rates Mali Coura as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Mali Coura vs Bougouni?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Mali Coura wins, 0 draws, 0 Bougouni wins.
League table
Mali. Premiere Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Djoliba AC Bamako | 23 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 36:9 | 53 |
| 2 |  Binga | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 27:12 | 42 |
| 3 |  AS Real Bamako | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 27:14 | 42 |
| 4 |  Stade Malien | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 22:14 | 41 |
| 5 |  Diarra de la Commune 4 | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 25:18 | 41 |
| 6 |  USFAS Bamako | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 31:24 | 36 |
| 7 |  Korofina | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 22:23 | 30 |
| 8 |  Derby Academie | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 16:16 | 28 |
| 9 |  Bougouba | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 18:24 | 28 |
| 10 |  Onze Createurs | 23 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 16:21 | 24 |
| 11 |  AS Bakaridjan | 23 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 16:24 | 23 |
| 12 |  Afrique Football Elite | 23 | 5 | 13 | 5 | 16:34 | 20 |
| 13 | Mali Coura | 23 | 3 | 13 | 7 | 15:27 | 16 |
| 14 | Bougouni | 23 | 3 | 16 | 4 | 9:36 | 13 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.