Korofina vs Derby Academie: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Korofinavs
Derby AcademieOur model leans Korofina (42% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Korofina.
- +Korofina have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Recent form favours Korofina.
- Korofina have home advantage.
- Goals outlook: a tight, low-scoring game likely.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Korofina and Derby Academie. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 42% for Korofina, 26% for the draw and 32% for Derby Academie.
Several signals point toward Korofina. Recent form favours Korofina. Korofina have home advantage.
Across the last 1 meetings, the record reads 0 Korofina wins, 1 draws and 0 Derby Academie wins. Recent scorelines: 0-0.
On form, Korofina show L-D-W-W-W across their recent outings, while Derby Academie read L-L-D-W-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Korofina or Derby Academie?
Our model rates Korofina as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Korofina wins, 1 draws, 0 Derby Academie wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Mali. Premiere Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Djoliba AC Bamako | 23 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 36:9 | 53 |
| 2 |  Binga | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 27:12 | 42 |
| 3 |  AS Real Bamako | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 27:14 | 42 |
| 4 |  Stade Malien | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 22:14 | 41 |
| 5 |  Diarra de la Commune 4 | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 25:18 | 41 |
| 6 |  USFAS Bamako | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 31:24 | 36 |
| 7 | Korofina | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 22:23 | 30 |
| 8 | Derby Academie | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 16:16 | 28 |
| 9 |  Bougouba | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 18:24 | 28 |
| 10 |  Onze Createurs | 23 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 16:21 | 24 |
| 11 |  AS Bakaridjan | 23 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 16:24 | 23 |
| 12 |  Afrique Football Elite | 23 | 5 | 13 | 5 | 16:34 | 20 |
| 13 |  Mali Coura | 23 | 3 | 13 | 7 | 15:27 | 16 |
| 14 |  Bougouni | 23 | 3 | 16 | 4 | 9:36 | 13 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.