Gualaceo vs Cumbaya: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Gualaceovs
CumbayaOur model leans Gualaceo (40% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −Recent form favours Cumbaya.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Gualaceo have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Cumbaya.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Gualaceo have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Gualaceo and Cumbaya. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 40% for Gualaceo, 25% for the draw and 34% for Cumbaya.
Several signals point toward Gualaceo. The odds point to a clear favourite. Gualaceo have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 3 Gualaceo wins, 1 draws and 2 Cumbaya wins. Recent scorelines: 1-1, 2-0, 0-2, 0-3, 1-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Gualaceo show L-L-L-L-D across their recent outings, while Cumbaya read D-L-D-D-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Gualaceo or Cumbaya?
Our model rates Gualaceo as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Gualaceo vs Cumbaya?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Gualaceo wins, 1 draws, 2 Cumbaya wins.
League table
Ecuador. Serie B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  9 de Octubre | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 18:10 | 28 |
| 2 |  Atletico Guayaquil | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 14:12 | 23 |
| 3 |  Independiente Juniors | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 13:10 | 21 |
| 4 |  Vinotinto Ecuador | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 19:11 | 20 |
| 5 |  Cuenca Juniors | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16:14 | 20 |
| 6 |  San Antonio Ibarra | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 18:14 | 19 |
| 7 |  LDU de Portoviejo | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 13:18 | 18 |
| 8 | Cumbaya | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14:15 | 15 |
| 9 |  Deportivo Santo Domingo | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 11:10 | 14 |
| 10 | Gualaceo | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 10:9 | 11 |
| 11 |  22 de Julio | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 8:17 | 6 |
| 12 |  Club Deportivo El Nacional | 13 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 9:23 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.