Club Deportivo El Nacional vs Deportivo Santo Domingo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Club Deportivo El Nacionalvs
Deportivo Santo DomingoOur model leans Club Deportivo El Nacional (39% probability), low confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Club Deportivo El Nacional (1-1-0).
- +Recent form favours Club Deportivo El Nacional.
- +Club Deportivo El Nacional have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Club Deportivo El Nacional (1-1-0).
- Recent form favours Club Deportivo El Nacional.
- Club Deportivo El Nacional have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Club Deportivo El Nacional and Deportivo Santo Domingo. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 39% for Club Deportivo El Nacional, 33% for the draw and 28% for Deportivo Santo Domingo.
Several signals point toward Club Deportivo El Nacional. The head-to-head record favours Club Deportivo El Nacional (1-1-0). Recent form favours Club Deportivo El Nacional. Club Deportivo El Nacional have home advantage.
Across the last 2 meetings, the record reads 1 Club Deportivo El Nacional wins, 1 draws and 0 Deportivo Santo Domingo wins. Recent scorelines: 1-1, 2-3.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Club Deportivo El Nacional show L-W-W-L-L across their recent outings, while Deportivo Santo Domingo read L-L-D-D-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Club Deportivo El Nacional" (1X2): we rate it 39% versus the 33% implied by odds of 2.75, an edge of 5.9 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Club Deportivo El Nacional or Deportivo Santo Domingo?
Our model rates Club Deportivo El Nacional as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Club Deportivo El Nacional vs Deportivo Santo Domingo?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 1 Club Deportivo El Nacional wins, 1 draws, 0 Deportivo Santo Domingo wins.
League table
Ecuador. Serie B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  9 de Octubre | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 18:10 | 28 |
| 2 |  Atletico Guayaquil | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 14:12 | 23 |
| 3 |  Independiente Juniors | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 13:10 | 21 |
| 4 |  Vinotinto Ecuador | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 19:11 | 20 |
| 5 |  Cuenca Juniors | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16:14 | 20 |
| 6 |  San Antonio Ibarra | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 18:14 | 19 |
| 7 |  LDU de Portoviejo | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 13:18 | 18 |
| 8 |  Cumbaya | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14:15 | 15 |
| 9 | Deportivo Santo Domingo | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 11:10 | 14 |
| 10 |  Gualaceo | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 10:9 | 11 |
| 11 |  22 de Julio | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 8:17 | 6 |
| 12 | Club Deportivo El Nacional | 13 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 9:23 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.