Inter Toronto vs Cavalry: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Inter Torontovs
CavalryOur model leans the draw (46% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −Recent form favours Inter Toronto.
- +The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Inter Toronto have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Inter Toronto.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Inter Toronto have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Inter Toronto and Cavalry. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 28% for Inter Toronto, 46% for the draw and 26% for Cavalry.
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 Inter Toronto wins, 1 draws and 3 Cavalry wins. Recent scorelines: 1-1, 4-1, 3-1, 0-1, 2-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Inter Toronto show W-L-D-W-W across their recent outings, while Cavalry read L-L-L-W-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Inter Toronto" (1X2): we rate it 28% versus the 25% implied by odds of 3.65, an edge of 3.2 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Inter Toronto or Cavalry?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Inter Toronto vs Cavalry?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Inter Toronto wins, 1 draws, 3 Cavalry wins.
League table
Canada. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Forge | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 14:4 | 22 |
| 2 | Cavalry | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14:4 | 20 |
| 3 |  Atletico Ottawa | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 15:18 | 14 |
| 4 | Inter Toronto | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:12 | 12 |
| 5 |  Supra du Quebec | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 6 |  HFX Wanderers | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9:13 | 9 |
| 7 |  Vancouver Langley | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 7:10 | 8 |
| 8 |  Pacific | 9 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9:18 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.