Kari Akranes vs UMF Selfoss: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Kari Akranesvs
UMF SelfossOur model leans the draw (38% probability), low confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours UMF Selfoss (0-0-6).
- −Recent form favours Kari Akranes.
- −Kari Akranes have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours UMF Selfoss (0-0-6).
- Recent form favours Kari Akranes.
- Kari Akranes have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Kari Akranes and UMF Selfoss. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 33% for Kari Akranes, 38% for the draw and 28% for UMF Selfoss.
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 0 Kari Akranes wins, 0 draws and 6 UMF Selfoss wins. Recent scorelines: 3-1, 1-0, 3-4, 0-2, 4-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Kari Akranes show D-L-L-D-W across their recent outings, while UMF Selfoss read W-L-D-L-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "UMF Selfoss" (1X2): we rate it 28% versus the 22% implied by odds of 4.00, an edge of 5.9 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Kari Akranes or UMF Selfoss?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Kari Akranes vs UMF Selfoss?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Kari Akranes wins, 0 draws, 6 UMF Selfoss wins.
League table
Iceland. 2 Delid| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Haukar | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19:6 | 15 |
| 2 | Kari Akranes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 19:10 | 11 |
| 3 | UMF Selfoss | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13:11 | 11 |
| 4 |  Kormakur Hvot | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15:6 | 10 |
| 5 |  KFA Fjardabyggd | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 17:12 | 9 |
| 6 |  Fjolnir | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 17:13 | 9 |
| 7 |  Hviti Riddarinn | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7:7 | 7 |
| 8 |  Throttur Vogar | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dalvik Reynir | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6:12 | 7 |
| 10 |  KFG Gardabaer | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10:20 | 6 |
| 11 |  Vikingur Olafsvik | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10:17 | 5 |
| 12 |  Magni | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6:23 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.