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Brazil. Campeonato Carioca A2

America Rio de Janeiro vs Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

America Rio de Janeiro America Rio de JaneirovsAssociacao Desportiva Cabofriense Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense
Our predictionAmerica Rio de Janeiro to win
Confidence: High · 70/100
Score hint: 2-1

Our model leans America Rio de Janeiro (48% probability), high confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · America Rio de JaneiroDraw2 · Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense
Full team comparison

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2America Rio de Janeiro2.02+2.8%
1X2Draw4.07-1.1%
1X2Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense2.77-1.7%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Recent form

America Rio de JaneiroWWDLL
Associacao Desportiva CabofrienseWWDDL
Team strength rating
America Rio de Janeiro
64
Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense
50

Most likely scorelines

1-111.9%
1-011.6%
2-19.5%
2-09.2%
0-17.5%
0-07.3%

Expected goals

1.59America Rio de Janeiro
xG
1.03Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense
Over 2.5 goals49%
Both teams to score51%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
America Rio de Janeiro Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2America Rio de Janeiro win2.02Fair (+2.8%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
07741
1121262
29952
3553
4221
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between America Rio de Janeiro and Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 48% for America Rio de Janeiro, 21% for the draw and 31% for Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense.

Several signals point toward America Rio de Janeiro. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours America Rio de Janeiro (2-4-0). America Rio de Janeiro have home advantage.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 America Rio de Janeiro wins, 4 draws and 0 Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense wins. Recent scorelines: 2-2, 0-3, 1-1, 0-3, 0-0.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, America Rio de Janeiro show W-W-D-L-L across their recent outings, while Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense read W-W-D-D-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 51%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "America Rio de Janeiro" (1X2): we rate it 48% versus the 45% implied by odds of 2.02, an edge of 2.8 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, America Rio de Janeiro or Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense?

Our model rates America Rio de Janeiro as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for America Rio de Janeiro vs Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 2 America Rio de Janeiro wins, 4 draws, 0 Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense wins.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

Brazil. Campeonato Carioca A2
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Americano Rio de Janeiro752012:615
2Marica65106:515
3Resende740314:515
4Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense63128:511
5Perolas Negras73318:1110
6America Rio de Janeiro63307:79
7Olaria Atletico Clube72238:79
8Serrano Petropolis72239:99
9Bonsucesso62316:67
10Audax Rio de Janeiro Esporte Clube72507:136
11Sao Goncalo71513:84
12Araruama71607:133
Promotion - Brazil. Campeonato Carioca B (Play-off: Round of 4) Relegation - Brazil. Campeonato Carioca B

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.