America Rio de Janeiro vs Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans America Rio de Janeiro (48% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours America Rio de Janeiro (2-4-0).
- +America Rio de Janeiro have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours America Rio de Janeiro (2-4-0).
- America Rio de Janeiro have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between America Rio de Janeiro and Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 48% for America Rio de Janeiro, 21% for the draw and 31% for Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense.
Several signals point toward America Rio de Janeiro. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours America Rio de Janeiro (2-4-0). America Rio de Janeiro have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 America Rio de Janeiro wins, 4 draws and 0 Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense wins. Recent scorelines: 2-2, 0-3, 1-1, 0-3, 0-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, America Rio de Janeiro show W-W-D-L-L across their recent outings, while Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense read W-W-D-D-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 51%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "America Rio de Janeiro" (1X2): we rate it 48% versus the 45% implied by odds of 2.02, an edge of 2.8 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, America Rio de Janeiro or Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense?
Our model rates America Rio de Janeiro as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for America Rio de Janeiro vs Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 America Rio de Janeiro wins, 4 draws, 0 Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense wins.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Carioca A2| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12:6 | 15 | |
| 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6:5 | 15 | |
| 3 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14:5 | 15 | |
| 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:5 | 11 | |
| 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8:11 | 10 | |
| 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7:7 | 9 | |
| 7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | 9 | |
| 8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:9 | 9 | |
| 9 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6:6 | 7 | |
| 10 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7:13 | 6 | |
| 11 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3:8 | 4 | |
| 12 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7:13 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.