Marica vs Bonsucesso: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Maricavs
BonsucessoOur model leans Marica (53% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +Marica have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Marica have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Marica and Bonsucesso. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 53% for Marica, 18% for the draw and 29% for Bonsucesso.
Several signals point toward Marica. The odds point to a clear favourite. Marica have home advantage.
Across the last 1 meetings, the record reads 1 Marica wins, 0 draws and 0 Bonsucesso wins. Recent scorelines: 2-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Marica show L-W-W-W-D across their recent outings, while Bonsucesso read W-L-L-D-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 50%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Marica or Bonsucesso?
Our model rates Marica as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Marica vs Bonsucesso?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Marica wins, 0 draws, 0 Bonsucesso wins.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Carioca A2| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Americano Rio de Janeiro | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12:6 | 15 |
| 2 | Marica | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6:5 | 15 |
| 3 |  Resende | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14:5 | 15 |
| 4 |  Associacao Desportiva Cabofriense | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:5 | 11 |
| 5 |  Perolas Negras | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8:11 | 10 |
| 6 |  America Rio de Janeiro | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7:7 | 9 |
| 7 |  Olaria Atletico Clube | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Serrano Petropolis | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:9 | 9 |
| 9 | Bonsucesso | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6:6 | 7 |
| 10 |  Audax Rio de Janeiro Esporte Clube | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7:13 | 6 |
| 11 |  Sao Goncalo | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3:8 | 4 |
| 12 |  Araruama | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7:13 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.