AC Connecticut vs Vermont Green: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
AC Connecticutvs
Vermont GreenOur model leans the draw (76% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours Vermont Green (0-1-4).
- −Recent form favours Vermont Green.
- −AC Connecticut have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Vermont Green (0-1-4).
- Recent form favours Vermont Green.
- AC Connecticut have home advantage.
- Goals outlook: an open game likely.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between AC Connecticut and Vermont Green. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 6% for AC Connecticut, 76% for the draw and 18% for Vermont Green.
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.
Across the last 5 meetings, the record reads 0 AC Connecticut wins, 1 draws and 4 Vermont Green wins. Recent scorelines: 0-0, 1-0, 1-2, 7-0, 4-6.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, AC Connecticut show L-L-L-L-W across their recent outings, while Vermont Green read W-W-W-W-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 64%. The match profile leans toward a higher goal total.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Under 2.5" (O/U 2.5): we rate it 37% versus the 24% implied by odds of 4.10, an edge of 12.3 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AC Connecticut or Vermont Green?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 76% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AC Connecticut vs Vermont Green?
A scoreline around 2-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 0 AC Connecticut wins, 1 draws, 4 Vermont Green wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.