North Carolina U23 vs Wake: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
North Carolina U23vs
WakeOur model leans North Carolina U23 (76% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +Recent form favours North Carolina U23.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +North Carolina U23 have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours North Carolina U23.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- North Carolina U23 have home advantage.
- Goals outlook: an open game likely.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 5 | 3 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between North Carolina U23 and Wake. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 76% for North Carolina U23, 10% for the draw and 14% for Wake.
Several signals point toward North Carolina U23. The odds point to a clear favourite. Recent form favours North Carolina U23. North Carolina U23 have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 3 North Carolina U23 wins, 1 draws and 2 Wake wins. Recent scorelines: 4-1, 2-3, 1-3, 2-3, 0-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, North Carolina U23 show W-L-W-L-W across their recent outings, while Wake read L-L-L-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 41%. The match profile leans toward a higher goal total.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Under 2.5" (O/U 2.5): we rate it 36% versus the 28% implied by odds of 3.58, an edge of 8.5 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, North Carolina U23 or Wake?
Our model rates North Carolina U23 as the most likely outcome at 76% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for North Carolina U23 vs Wake?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 North Carolina U23 wins, 1 draws, 2 Wake wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.