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Norway. Division 3. Group 5

Ulfstind vs Floya: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Ulfstind UlfstindvsFloya Floya
Our predictionDraw
Confidence: High · 85/100
Score hint: 2-2

Our model leans the draw (62% probability), high confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · UlfstindDraw2 · Floya
Full team comparison

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

O/U 2.5Under 2.53.92+11.1%
1X2Floya5.25+6.8%
1X2Ulfstind6.27-0.5%
1X2Draw1.33-6.3%
O/U 2.5Over 2.51.18-21.7%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Recent form

UlfstindLLLLL
FloyaLWWWW
Team strength rating
Ulfstind
21
Floya
50

Expected goals

1.56Ulfstind
xG
1.73Floya
Over 2.5 goals63%
Both teams to score65%

Most likely scorelines

1-110.1%
1-28.7%
2-17.9%
2-26.8%
0-16.5%
1-05.8%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Ulfstind Floya

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Draw1.33Avoid (-6.3%)
Total goalsOver 2.51.18Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
046631
1610952
258742
32442
421
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Ulfstind and Floya. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 14% for Ulfstind, 62% for the draw and 24% for Floya.

Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.

Across the last 5 meetings, the record reads 1 Ulfstind wins, 1 draws and 3 Floya wins. Recent scorelines: 4-2, 2-0, 2-0, 4-4, 3-0.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Ulfstind show L-L-L-L-L across their recent outings, while Floya read L-W-W-W-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 65%. The match profile leans toward a higher goal total.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Under 2.5" (O/U 2.5): we rate it 37% versus the 26% implied by odds of 3.92, an edge of 11.1 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Ulfstind or Floya?

Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 62% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Ulfstind vs Floya?

A scoreline around 2-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 5 meetings: 1 Ulfstind wins, 1 draws, 3 Floya wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

Norway. Division 3. Group 5
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Skedsmo972022:1421
2Floya961224:1320
3Finnsnes962120:1319
4Fauske Sprint941425:2216
5Lillestrom II954022:1715
6Alta942319:1415
7KIL Toppfotball II943218:1514
8Skjervoy943215:1614
9Stromsgodset II944119:2013
10Harstad935120:1710
11Skjetten926115:217
12Tromso II915312:176
13Ulfstind917117:284
14Bossekop UL917110:314
Promotion Relegation

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.