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Iran. Azadegan League

Damash Gilan vs Mes Shahr-e Babak: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Damash Gilan Damash GilanvsMes Shahr-e Babak Mes Shahr-e Babak
Our predictionDraw
Confidence: High · 75/100
Score hint: 1-1

Our model leans the draw (51% probability), high confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · Damash GilanDraw2 · Mes Shahr-e Babak
Full team comparison

Recent form

Damash GilanLWLLW
Mes Shahr-e BabakLLDWL
Team strength rating
Damash Gilan
36
Mes Shahr-e Babak
42

Most likely scorelines

1-112.5%
0-110.3%
1-09.1%
1-28.6%
2-17.6%
0-07.5%

Expected goals

1.21Damash Gilan
xG
1.37Mes Shahr-e Babak
Over 2.5 goals48%
Both teams to score52%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Damash Gilan Mes Shahr-e Babak

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Draw1.81Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
0810731
1913941
26852
3232
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Draw1.81+0.4%
1X2Damash Gilan5.04+0.4%
1X2Mes Shahr-e Babak3.02-0.8%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Damash Gilan and Mes Shahr-e Babak. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 19% for Damash Gilan, 51% for the draw and 30% for Mes Shahr-e Babak.

Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head history is finely balanced.

Across the last 5 meetings, the record reads 2 Damash Gilan wins, 0 draws and 3 Mes Shahr-e Babak wins. Recent scorelines: 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-2.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Damash Gilan show L-W-L-L-W across their recent outings, while Mes Shahr-e Babak read L-L-D-W-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Damash Gilan or Mes Shahr-e Babak?

Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Damash Gilan vs Mes Shahr-e Babak?

A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 5 meetings: 2 Damash Gilan wins, 0 draws, 3 Mes Shahr-e Babak wins.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

43'Reza Khani
59'Unknown

Match story

How the game unfolded
0–15'00

Cautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)

15–45'01

Mes Shahr-e Babak make it count (Reza Khani (43')). It's 0–1 at this point.

43'Reza Khani
Half-time

Half-time score: Damash Gilan 0 – 1 Mes Shahr-e Babak.

45–75'02

Mes Shahr-e Babak make it count (Unknown (59')). It's 0–2 at this point.

59'Unknown
75–90'+02

A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–2)

Full time: Damash Gilan 02 Mes Shahr-e Babak

League table

Iran. Azadegan League
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Nassaji Mazandaran28173841:1259
2Mes Shahr-e Babak27153928:1254
3Pars Jonoubi Jam281261032:2046
4Sanat Naft Abadan281261027:1846
5Saipa281261024:1646
6Havadar28851522:1639
7Sanat Mes Kerman28981117:1438
8Besat Kermanshah28991024:2237
9Fard Alborz28761517:1136
10Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas27751520:1736
11Naft Gachsaran28781321:2634
12Niroye Zamini287101124:2232
13Ario Eslamshahr28681412:1432
14Kara Gostar28715612:3127
15Shahrdari Nowshahr275111115:2326
16Shenavar Sazi Qeshm28514912:2924
17Navad Urmia284131115:3523
18Damash Gilan272151013:3816
Promotion - Premier League Relegation

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.