Damash Gilan vs Mes Shahr-e Babak: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans the draw (51% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Damash Gilan have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Damash Gilan have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Damash Gilan and Mes Shahr-e Babak. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 19% for Damash Gilan, 51% for the draw and 30% for Mes Shahr-e Babak.
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Across the last 5 meetings, the record reads 2 Damash Gilan wins, 0 draws and 3 Mes Shahr-e Babak wins. Recent scorelines: 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-2.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Damash Gilan show L-W-L-L-W across their recent outings, while Mes Shahr-e Babak read L-L-D-W-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Damash Gilan or Mes Shahr-e Babak?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Damash Gilan vs Mes Shahr-e Babak?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 2 Damash Gilan wins, 0 draws, 3 Mes Shahr-e Babak wins.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
Mes Shahr-e Babak make it count (Reza Khani (43')). It's 0–1 at this point.
Half-time score: Damash Gilan 0 – 1 Mes Shahr-e Babak.
Mes Shahr-e Babak make it count (Unknown (59')). It's 0–2 at this point.
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–2)
League table
Iran. Azadegan League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 41:12 | 59 | |
| 2 | 27 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 28:12 | 54 | |
| 3 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 32:20 | 46 | |
| 4 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 27:18 | 46 | |
| 5 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 24:16 | 46 | |
| 6 | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 22:16 | 39 | |
| 7 | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 17:14 | 38 | |
| 8 | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 24:22 | 37 | |
| 9 | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 17:11 | 36 | |
| 10 | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 20:17 | 36 | |
| 11 | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 21:26 | 34 | |
| 12 | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 24:22 | 32 | |
| 13 | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 12:14 | 32 | |
| 14 | 28 | 7 | 15 | 6 | 12:31 | 27 | |
| 15 | 27 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 15:23 | 26 | |
| 16 | 28 | 5 | 14 | 9 | 12:29 | 24 | |
| 17 | 28 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 15:35 | 23 | |
| 18 | 27 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 13:38 | 16 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.