Afrique Football Elite vs Korofina: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans Afrique Football Elite (42% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +Recent form favours Afrique Football Elite.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Afrique Football Elite have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Afrique Football Elite.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Afrique Football Elite have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Afrique Football Elite and Korofina. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 42% for Afrique Football Elite, 26% for the draw and 33% for Korofina.
Several signals point toward Afrique Football Elite. The odds point to a clear favourite. Recent form favours Afrique Football Elite. Afrique Football Elite have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 Afrique Football Elite wins, 1 draws and 3 Korofina wins. Recent scorelines: 2-0, 0-1, 1-2, 2-0, 1-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Afrique Football Elite show D-W-W-W-L across their recent outings, while Korofina read L-L-D-W-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Afrique Football Elite" (1X2): we rate it 42% versus the 40% implied by odds of 2.30, an edge of 2.1 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Afrique Football Elite or Korofina?
Our model rates Afrique Football Elite as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Afrique Football Elite vs Korofina?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Afrique Football Elite wins, 1 draws, 3 Korofina wins.
League table
Mali. Premiere Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 38:11 | 56 | |
| 2 | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 26:15 | 47 | |
| 3 | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 28:14 | 46 | |
| 4 | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 32:22 | 44 | |
| 5 | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 28:15 | 42 | |
| 6 | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 35:26 | 39 | |
| 7 | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 24:23 | 33 | |
| 8 | 25 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 21:30 | 31 | |
| 9 | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 16:18 | 28 | |
| 10 | 24 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 16:24 | 24 | |
| 11 | 24 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 16:26 | 23 | |
| 12 | 24 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 16:34 | 21 | |
| 13 | 24 | 4 | 13 | 7 | 17:27 | 19 | |
| 14 | 25 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 11:39 | 16 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.