Derby Academie vs Mali Coura: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Derby Academievs
Mali CouraOur model leans Mali Coura (35% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −Derby Academie have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Derby Academie have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Derby Academie and Mali Coura. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 35% for Derby Academie, 31% for the draw and 35% for Mali Coura.
Several signals point toward Mali Coura. The odds point to a clear favourite.
Across the last 1 meetings, the record reads 0 Derby Academie wins, 1 draws and 0 Mali Coura wins. Recent scorelines: 1-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Derby Academie show L-L-L-D-W across their recent outings, while Mali Coura read L-L-D-D-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Derby Academie or Mali Coura?
Our model rates Mali Coura as the most likely outcome at 35% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Derby Academie vs Mali Coura?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Derby Academie wins, 1 draws, 0 Mali Coura wins.
League table
Mali. Premiere Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Djoliba AC Bamako | 25 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 38:11 | 56 |
| 2 |  Stade Malien | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 26:15 | 47 |
| 3 |  AS Real Bamako | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 28:14 | 46 |
| 4 |  Diarra de la Commune 4 | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 32:22 | 44 |
| 5 |  Binga | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 28:15 | 42 |
| 6 |  USFAS Bamako | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 35:26 | 39 |
| 7 |  Korofina | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 24:23 | 33 |
| 8 |  Bougouba | 25 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 21:30 | 31 |
| 9 | Derby Academie | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 16:18 | 28 |
| 10 |  Onze Createurs | 24 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 16:24 | 24 |
| 11 |  AS Bakaridjan | 24 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 16:26 | 23 |
| 12 |  Afrique Football Elite | 24 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 16:34 | 21 |
| 13 | Mali Coura | 24 | 4 | 13 | 7 | 17:27 | 19 |
| 14 |  Bougouni | 25 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 11:39 | 16 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.