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Mali. Premiere Division

Onze Createurs vs AS Bakaridjan: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Onze Createurs Onze CreateursvsAS Bakaridjan AS Bakaridjan
Our predictionAS Bakaridjan to win
Confidence: Low · 30/100
Score hint: 1-2

Our model leans AS Bakaridjan (38% probability), low confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · Onze CreateursDraw2 · AS Bakaridjan
Full team comparison

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Onze Createurs2.67+2.3%
1X2AS Bakaridjan2.39+0.4%
1X2Draw3.23-2.7%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Onze CreateursLLWDW
AS BakaridjanWDWWW
Team strength rating
Onze Createurs
50
AS Bakaridjan
58

Most likely scorelines

1-112.5%
1-010.0%
0-19.4%
2-18.4%
1-27.9%
0-07.4%

Expected goals

1.34Onze Createurs
xG
1.26AS Bakaridjan
Over 2.5 goals48%
Both teams to score53%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Onze Createurs AS Bakaridjan

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2AS Bakaridjan win2.39Fair
Double chanceAS Bakaridjan or drawInfo

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
07962
11013831
27852
3342
41
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Onze Createurs and AS Bakaridjan. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 36% for Onze Createurs, 25% for the draw and 38% for AS Bakaridjan.

Several signals point toward AS Bakaridjan. The odds point to a clear favourite. Recent form favours AS Bakaridjan.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 4 Onze Createurs wins, 2 draws and 0 AS Bakaridjan wins. Recent scorelines: 0-3, 2-2, 0-2, 0-3, 3-3.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Onze Createurs show L-L-W-D-W across their recent outings, while AS Bakaridjan read W-D-W-W-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Onze Createurs" (1X2): we rate it 36% versus the 34% implied by odds of 2.67, an edge of 2.3 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Onze Createurs or AS Bakaridjan?

Our model rates AS Bakaridjan as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Onze Createurs vs AS Bakaridjan?

A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 4 Onze Createurs wins, 2 draws, 0 AS Bakaridjan wins.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

Mali. Premiere Division
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Djoliba AC Bamako25173538:1156
2Stade Malien25134826:1547
3AS Real Bamako25135728:1446
4Diarra de la Commune 425137532:2244
5Binga25127628:1542
6USFAS Bamako25118635:2639
7Korofina2499624:2333
8Bougouba25810721:3031
9Derby Academie24561316:1828
10Onze Createurs24612616:2424
11AS Bakaridjan24511816:2623
12Afrique Football Elite24513616:3421
13Mali Coura24413717:2719
14Bougouni25417411:3916
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Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.