Onze Createurs vs AS Bakaridjan: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans AS Bakaridjan (38% probability), low confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours Onze Createurs (4-2-0).
- +Recent form favours AS Bakaridjan.
- −Onze Createurs have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Onze Createurs (4-2-0).
- Recent form favours AS Bakaridjan.
- Onze Createurs have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Onze Createurs and AS Bakaridjan. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 36% for Onze Createurs, 25% for the draw and 38% for AS Bakaridjan.
Several signals point toward AS Bakaridjan. The odds point to a clear favourite. Recent form favours AS Bakaridjan.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 4 Onze Createurs wins, 2 draws and 0 AS Bakaridjan wins. Recent scorelines: 0-3, 2-2, 0-2, 0-3, 3-3.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Onze Createurs show L-L-W-D-W across their recent outings, while AS Bakaridjan read W-D-W-W-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Onze Createurs" (1X2): we rate it 36% versus the 34% implied by odds of 2.67, an edge of 2.3 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Onze Createurs or AS Bakaridjan?
Our model rates AS Bakaridjan as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Onze Createurs vs AS Bakaridjan?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Onze Createurs wins, 2 draws, 0 AS Bakaridjan wins.
League table
Mali. Premiere Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 38:11 | 56 | |
| 2 | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 26:15 | 47 | |
| 3 | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 28:14 | 46 | |
| 4 | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 32:22 | 44 | |
| 5 | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 28:15 | 42 | |
| 6 | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 35:26 | 39 | |
| 7 | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 24:23 | 33 | |
| 8 | 25 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 21:30 | 31 | |
| 9 | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 16:18 | 28 | |
| 10 | 24 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 16:24 | 24 | |
| 11 | 24 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 16:26 | 23 | |
| 12 | 24 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 16:34 | 21 | |
| 13 | 24 | 4 | 13 | 7 | 17:27 | 19 | |
| 14 | 25 | 4 | 17 | 4 | 11:39 | 16 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.