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Abkhazia Championship

Yertsakhu vs Nart Sukhum: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Yertsakhu YertsakhuvsNart Sukhum Nart Sukhum
Our predictionNart Sukhum to win
Confidence: High · 84/100
Score hint: 1-2

Our model leans Nart Sukhum (55% probability), high confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · YertsakhuDraw2 · Nart Sukhum
Full team comparison
Team strength rating
Yertsakhu
40
Nart Sukhum
63

Most likely scorelines

0-113.3%
0-211.3%
1-111.3%
1-29.6%
0-07.8%
1-06.6%

Expected goals

0.85Yertsakhu
xG
1.70Nart Sukhum
Over 2.5 goals47%
Both teams to score47%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Yertsakhu Nart Sukhum

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Nart Sukhum win1.66Fair
Total goalsOver 2.51.86Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
08131163
17111052
23542
311
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Yertsakhu5.61+0.7%
O/U 2.5Under 2.51.90+0.5%
1X2Draw3.26-0.3%
1X2Nart Sukhum1.66-0.5%
O/U 2.5Over 2.51.86-6.9%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

With limited data on this fixture, the read here is driven by the market. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 17% for Yertsakhu, 28% for the draw and 55% for Nart Sukhum — treat this as a lighter, odds-led view.

Several signals point toward Nart Sukhum. The odds point to a clear favourite.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 47%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Yertsakhu or Nart Sukhum?

Our model rates Nart Sukhum as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Yertsakhu vs Nart Sukhum?

A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.