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Finland. Veikkausliiga

Turun Palloseura vs Kuopion Palloseura: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Turun Palloseura Turun PalloseuravsKuopion Palloseura Kuopion Palloseura
Our predictionDraw
Confidence: Medium · 59/100
Score hint: 1-1

Our model leans the draw (53% probability), medium confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · Turun PalloseuraDraw2 · Kuopion Palloseura
Full team comparison

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Kuopion Palloseura3.90+5.9%
1X2Turun Palloseura5.17-0.8%
1X2Draw1.62-5.1%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Turun PalloseuraLWLLL
Kuopion PalloseuraDLDWW
Team strength rating
Turun Palloseura
29
Kuopion Palloseura
52

Most likely scorelines

1-112.5%
0-110.5%
1-09.0%
1-28.7%
0-07.5%
2-17.5%

Expected goals

1.19Turun Palloseura
xG
1.39Kuopion Palloseura
Over 2.5 goals48%
Both teams to score52%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Turun Palloseura Kuopion Palloseura

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Draw1.62Avoid (-5.1%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
0810731
1913941
25752
3232
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Turun Palloseura and Kuopion Palloseura. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 17% for Turun Palloseura, 53% for the draw and 30% for Kuopion Palloseura.

Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 1 Turun Palloseura wins, 1 draws and 4 Kuopion Palloseura wins. Recent scorelines: 3-2, 3-1, 2-1, 3-2, 0-0.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Turun Palloseura show L-W-L-L-L across their recent outings, while Kuopion Palloseura read D-L-D-W-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Kuopion Palloseura" (1X2): we rate it 30% versus the 24% implied by odds of 3.90, an edge of 5.9 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Turun Palloseura or Kuopion Palloseura?

Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Turun Palloseura vs Kuopion Palloseura?

A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 1 Turun Palloseura wins, 1 draws, 4 Kuopion Palloseura wins.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

Finland. Veikkausliiga
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Inter Turku1271417:825
2AC Oulu1173116:822
3Kuopion Palloseura1251617:1121
4HJK1153318:1018
5Turun Palloseura1043311:915
6Gnistan1044216:1514
7Vaasan Palloseura103259:814
8Ilves1135314:2112
9Lahti1035214:1311
10Seinajoen Jalkapallokerho1025311:169
11FF Jaro1116410:227
12Mariehamn100645:174
Promotion - Higher League (Championship - Play-off) Higher League (Relegation Group)

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.