HJK vs Inter Turku: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
HJKvs
Inter TurkuThe model puts HJK at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −HJK are dealing with notable absentees.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- HJK have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Inter Turku have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- HJK have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- HJK will be without Kirilov, Mentu, Nylund, Simojoki, Toivonen.
- HJK is priced at 2.49.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts HJK at 37%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Inter Turku at 35%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. HJK is priced at 2.49. The draw is priced at 3.32. Inter Turku is priced at 2.71.
HJK have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Inter Turku have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
HJK have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Inter Turku have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Inter Turku are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, HJK or Inter Turku?
Our model rates HJK as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for HJK vs Inter Turku?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 HJK wins, 4 draws, 1 Inter Turku wins.
Odds movement
League table
Finland. Veikkausliiga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Turku | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 17:8 | 25 |
| 2 |  AC Oulu | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 16:8 | 22 |
| 3 |  Kuopion Palloseura | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17:11 | 21 |
| 4 | HJK | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18:10 | 18 |
| 5 |  Turun Palloseura | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Gnistan | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16:15 | 14 |
| 7 |  Vaasan Palloseura | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9:8 | 14 |
| 8 |  Ilves | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14:21 | 12 |
| 9 |  Lahti | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14:13 | 11 |
| 10 |  Seinajoen Jalkapallokerho | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11:16 | 9 |
| 11 |  FF Jaro | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 10:22 | 7 |
| 12 |  Mariehamn | 10 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 5:17 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.