Ilves vs FF Jaro: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ilvesvs
FF JaroOur model leans Ilves (59% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours Ilves (5-0-1).
- +Recent form favours Ilves.
- −Ilves are dealing with notable absentees.
- +FF Jaro are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Ilves have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Ilves (5-0-1).
- Recent form favours Ilves.
- Ilves are dealing with notable absentees.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Ilves and FF Jaro. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 59% for Ilves, 19% for the draw and 22% for FF Jaro.
Several signals point toward Ilves. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Ilves (5-0-1). Recent form favours Ilves.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 5 Ilves wins, 0 draws and 1 FF Jaro wins. Recent scorelines: 4-2, 0-1, 2-1, 4-0, 1-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Ilves show W-W-L-W-W across their recent outings, while FF Jaro read L-L-W-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 45%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Ilves" (1X2): we rate it 59% versus the 55% implied by odds of 1.70, an edge of 4.1 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ilves or FF Jaro?
Our model rates Ilves as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ilves vs FF Jaro?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 5 Ilves wins, 0 draws, 1 FF Jaro wins.
League table
Finland. Veikkausliiga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter Turku | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 17:8 | 25 |
| 2 |  AC Oulu | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 16:8 | 22 |
| 3 |  Kuopion Palloseura | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  HJK | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18:10 | 18 |
| 5 |  Turun Palloseura | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Gnistan | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16:15 | 14 |
| 7 |  Vaasan Palloseura | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9:8 | 14 |
| 8 | Ilves | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14:21 | 12 |
| 9 |  Lahti | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14:13 | 11 |
| 10 |  Seinajoen Jalkapallokerho | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11:16 | 9 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 10:22 | 7 |
| 12 |  Mariehamn | 10 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 5:17 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.