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Niger Championship

AS Police Niamey vs AS Douanes Niamey: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

AS Police Niamey AS Police NiameyvsAS Douanes Niamey AS Douanes Niamey
Our predictionAS Police Niamey to win
Confidence: Medium · 41/100
Score hint: 2-1

Our model leans AS Police Niamey (40% probability), medium confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · AS Police NiameyDraw2 · AS Douanes Niamey
Full team comparison

Recent form

AS Police NiameyWDDWD
AS Douanes NiameyLLLDL
Team strength rating
AS Police Niamey
58
AS Douanes Niamey
45

Most likely scorelines

1-112.4%
1-010.7%
2-19.0%
0-18.5%
2-07.8%
0-07.4%

Expected goals

1.46AS Police Niamey
xG
1.15AS Douanes Niamey
Over 2.5 goals48%
Both teams to score52%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
AS Police Niamey AS Douanes Niamey

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2AS Police Niamey win2.37Fair (+1.1%)
Double chanceAS Police Niamey or drawInfo

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
07852
1111273
28952
3443
412
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2AS Douanes Niamey2.92+1.7%
1X2AS Police Niamey2.37+1.1%
1X2Draw3.17-2.8%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between AS Police Niamey and AS Douanes Niamey. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 40% for AS Police Niamey, 26% for the draw and 33% for AS Douanes Niamey.

Several signals point toward AS Police Niamey. The odds point to a clear favourite. Recent form favours AS Police Niamey. AS Police Niamey have home advantage.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 1 AS Police Niamey wins, 0 draws and 5 AS Douanes Niamey wins. Recent scorelines: 0-1, 0-1, 2-0, 0-1, 3-2.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, AS Police Niamey show W-D-D-W-D across their recent outings, while AS Douanes Niamey read L-L-L-D-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, AS Police Niamey or AS Douanes Niamey?

Our model rates AS Police Niamey as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for AS Police Niamey vs AS Douanes Niamey?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 1 AS Police Niamey wins, 0 draws, 5 AS Douanes Niamey wins.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

Niger Championship
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1ASN Nigelec29194645:2263
2US Gendarmerie29174848:1759
3AS FAN Niamey29166738:2355
4ASGNN291451037:2052
5AS Police Niamey28147738:2049
6AS Douanes Niamey281171032:2143
7AS ZAM291012737:4337
8Espoir Zinder29911929:3336
9Tahoua291015434:4934
10Sahel Niamey28914519:2132
11Urana28812828:3332
12Liberte297121027:4531
13Tagour Provincial Club286101228:3830
14AS UAM29714823:3329
15Olympic de Niamey28415922:4321
16Renaissance Boukoki29417822:4620
Relegation

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.