AC Oulu vs Mariehamn: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
AC Ouluvs
MariehamnThe model puts AC Oulu at 69%. The model leans toward AC Oulu. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours AC Oulu.
- +The head-to-head record favours AC Oulu (4-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- AC Oulu have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mariehamn have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AC Oulu have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- AC Oulu will be without Pitkanen M..
- Mariehamn will be without Arvid Bergvik.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts AC Oulu at 69%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Mariehamn at 12%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward AC Oulu. AC Oulu is priced at 1.4. The draw is priced at 4.6. Mariehamn is priced at 7.38.
AC Oulu have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Mariehamn have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
AC Oulu have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Mariehamn have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 36% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AC Oulu or Mariehamn?
Our model rates AC Oulu as the most likely outcome at 69% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 AC Oulu wins, 1 draws, 1 Mariehamn wins.
League table
Finland. Veikkausliiga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter Turku | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 17:8 | 25 |
| 2 | AC Oulu | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 16:8 | 22 |
| 3 |  Kuopion Palloseura | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17:11 | 21 |
| 4 |  HJK | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18:10 | 18 |
| 5 |  Turun Palloseura | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Gnistan | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16:15 | 14 |
| 7 |  Vaasan Palloseura | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9:8 | 14 |
| 8 |  Ilves | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14:21 | 12 |
| 9 |  Lahti | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14:13 | 11 |
| 10 |  Seinajoen Jalkapallokerho | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11:16 | 9 |
| 11 |  FF Jaro | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 10:22 | 7 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 10 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 5:17 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.