Harry Kane vs Kylian Mbappe: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Harry Kanevs
Kylian MbappeThe model puts Harry Kane at 42%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: low.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Harry Kane is priced at 2.23.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Harry Kane at 42%. The model puts the draw at 38%. The model puts Kylian Mbappe at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Harry Kane is priced at 2.23. The draw is priced at 2.44. Kylian Mbappe is priced at 4.5.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Harry Kane or Kylian Mbappe?
Our model rates Harry Kane as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Harry Kane vs Kylian Mbappe?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Odds movement
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.