Gala vs Benfica Macau: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Galavs
Benfica MacauThe model puts Gala at 50%. The model leans toward Gala. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Gala (3-0-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Gala have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Benfica Macau have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gala have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Gala is priced at 1.87.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Gala at 50%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Benfica Macau at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Gala. Gala is priced at 1.87. The draw is priced at 4. Benfica Macau is priced at 3.155.
Gala have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Gala have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Benfica Macau have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Benfica Macau are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 62% for both teams to score. The model gives 65% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Gala or Benfica Macau?
Our model rates Gala as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Gala vs Benfica Macau?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 3 Gala wins, 0 draws, 0 Benfica Macau wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Macau. Elite League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shao Jiang | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 50:12 | 29 |
| 2 |  Chao Pak Kei | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 57:9 | 28 |
| 3 | Gala | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 35:16 | 25 |
| 4 |  Macau Chiba | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 33:21 | 21 |
| 5 |  Cheng Fung | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 22:17 | 19 |
| 6 | Benfica Macau | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 29:28 | 18 |
| 7 |  Gorilla Of The Universe | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 32:51 | 13 |
| 8 |  Hang Sai | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 18:28 | 9 |
| 9 |  Artilheiros | 12 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 15:62 | 8 |
| 10 |  University of Macau | 12 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 7:54 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.