Aalesunds vs Molde: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Aalesundsvs
MoldeThe model puts Molde at 45%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Molde.
- −The head-to-head record favours Aalesunds (5-0-1).
- +Aalesunds are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Molde are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Aalesunds have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Molde have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Aalesunds have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Aalesunds will be without Aukland P., Johannsson D., Ngongo, Seehusen.
- Molde will be without Dal, Hansen, Kikkenborg, Oyvann.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Aalesunds at 32%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Molde at 45%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Molde. Aalesunds is priced at 3.16. The draw is priced at 3.74. Molde is priced at 2.13.
Aalesunds have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Molde have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Aalesunds have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Molde have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Aalesunds or Molde?
Our model rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Aalesunds vs Molde?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 5 Aalesunds wins, 0 draws, 1 Molde wins.
Match statistics
Aalesunds
- 2Andresen
- 3Gudmundsson
- 4Haram
- 5Kjelsen
- 14Charles
- 15Osenbroch
- 18Hagen
- 21Kristensen
- 26Larsen
- 27Reed
- 39Lonebu
- Aukland P. (Questionable)
- Johannsson D. (Questionable)
- Ngongo (Missing Player)
- Seehusen (Questionable)
Molde
- 5Hestad
- 6Amundsen
- 8Gulbrandsen
- 10Breivik E.
- 15Hoff V.
- 17Daehli Ma.
- 18Stenevik H.
- 22Posiadala
- 23Granaas
- 25Linnes
- 33Risa B.
- Dal (Missing Player)
- Hansen (Questionable)
- Kikkenborg (Missing Player)
- Oyvann (Questionable)
League table
Norway. Eliteserien| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 29:10 | 27 |
| 2 |  Tromso | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 18:14 | 25 |
| 3 |  Bodo-Glimt | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28:11 | 23 |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 17:11 | 19 |
| 5 | Molde | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18:13 | 19 |
| 6 |  HamKam | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17:16 | 17 |
| 7 |  Sarpsborg 08 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 13:16 | 14 |
| 8 |  Sandefjord | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 10:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Valerenga | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Fredrikstad | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15:20 | 14 |
| 11 |  Brann | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 24:20 | 13 |
| 12 |  KFUM-Kameratene | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12:17 | 12 |
| 13 | Aalesunds | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 15:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Kristiansund BK | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 11:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Rosenborg | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 9:18 | 9 |
| 16 |  IK Start | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 13:28 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.