Sarpsborg 08 vs Viking: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sarpsborg 08vs
VikingThe model puts Viking at 49%. The model leans toward Viking. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Sarpsborg 08.
- −The head-to-head record favours Sarpsborg 08 (3-2-1).
- +Sarpsborg 08 are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Viking are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sarpsborg 08 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Viking have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sarpsborg 08 have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sarpsborg 08 will be without Carstensen F., Opoku, Rosted S..
- Viking will be without Falchener, Roseth, Berisha V.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sarpsborg 08 at 29%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Viking at 49%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Viking. Sarpsborg 08 is priced at 4.02. The draw is priced at 3.94. Viking is priced at 1.816.
Sarpsborg 08 have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Viking have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sarpsborg 08 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Viking have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sarpsborg 08 or Viking?
Our model rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 vs Viking?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Sarpsborg 08 wins, 2 draws, 1 Viking wins.
League table
Norway. Eliteserien| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 29:10 | 27 |
| 2 |  Tromso | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 18:14 | 25 |
| 3 |  Bodo-Glimt | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28:11 | 23 |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 17:11 | 19 |
| 5 |  Molde | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18:13 | 19 |
| 6 |  HamKam | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17:16 | 17 |
| 7 | Sarpsborg 08 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 13:16 | 14 |
| 8 |  Sandefjord | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 10:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Valerenga | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Fredrikstad | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15:20 | 14 |
| 11 |  Brann | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 24:20 | 13 |
| 12 |  KFUM-Kameratene | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12:17 | 12 |
| 13 |  Aalesunds | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 15:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Kristiansund BK | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 11:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Rosenborg | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 9:18 | 9 |
| 16 |  IK Start | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 13:28 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.