Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Fredrikstadvs
LillestromThe model puts Lillestrom at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Fredrikstad are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Lillestrom are dealing with notable absentees.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Fredrikstad have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lillestrom have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fredrikstad have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Fredrikstad will be without Sorlokk, Kvile S., Owusu S..
- Lillestrom will be without Arierhi, Garnas, Kitolano E., Ranger, Woxen.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Fredrikstad at 32%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Lillestrom at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Fredrikstad is priced at 3.016. The draw is priced at 3.34. Lillestrom is priced at 2.36.
Fredrikstad have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Lillestrom have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Fredrikstad have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Lillestrom have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fredrikstad or Lillestrom?
Our model rates Lillestrom as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Fredrikstad wins, 1 draws, 3 Lillestrom wins.
Match statistics
Fredrikstad
- 3Andresen
- 4Holme
- 5Rafn
- 6Holm S.
- 9Laghzaoui
- 12Fredriksen Ul.
- 16Eid D.
- 20Ohlenschlaeger
- 21Shein
- 23Skogvold
- 77Borsheim
- Sorlokk (Questionable)
- Kvile S. (Missing Player)
- Owusu S. (Questionable)
Lillestrom
- 3Ottesen
- 5Foss
- 8Karlsbakk
- 12Dahlberg P.
- 14Nyheim
- 15Drammeh
- 19Jebara
- 20Antonio V.
- 26Paintsil
- 28Gabrielsen R.
- 29Ibrahimaj Y.
- Arierhi (Questionable)
- Garnas (Missing Player)
- Kitolano E. (Questionable)
- Ranger (Questionable)
- Woxen (Questionable)
League table
Norway. Eliteserien| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 29:10 | 27 |
| 2 |  Tromso | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 18:14 | 25 |
| 3 |  Bodo-Glimt | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28:11 | 23 |
| 4 | Lillestrom | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 17:11 | 19 |
| 5 |  Molde | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18:13 | 19 |
| 6 |  HamKam | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17:16 | 17 |
| 7 |  Sarpsborg 08 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 13:16 | 14 |
| 8 |  Sandefjord | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 10:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Valerenga | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 | Fredrikstad | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15:20 | 14 |
| 11 |  Brann | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 24:20 | 13 |
| 12 |  KFUM-Kameratene | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12:17 | 12 |
| 13 |  Aalesunds | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 15:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Kristiansund BK | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 11:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Rosenborg | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 9:18 | 9 |
| 16 |  IK Start | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 13:28 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.