Tromso vs Valerenga: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Tromsovs
ValerengaThe model puts Tromso at 54%. The model leans toward Tromso. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Tromso are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Valerenga are dealing with notable absentees.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Tromso have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Valerenga have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tromso have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Tromso will be without Ekblom V., Guddall, Thongla-Iad Warneryd, Tonnessen.
- Valerenga will be without Bully, Sjoeng, Thorvaldsen.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Tromso at 54%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Valerenga at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Tromso. Tromso is priced at 1.76. The draw is priced at 3.78. Valerenga is priced at 4.52.
Tromso have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Valerenga have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Tromso have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Valerenga have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Tromso or Valerenga?
Our model rates Tromso as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Tromso vs Valerenga?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Tromso wins, 1 draws, 2 Valerenga wins.
Match statistics
Tromso
- 1Haugaard J.
- 2Cornic L.
- 4Skjaervik
- 5Edvardsson D.
- 6Hjerto Dahl
- 7Larsen
- 11Reijnen
- 22Larsen
- 25Kinteh
- 30Vadebu
- 37Innvaer
- Ekblom V. (Missing Player)
- Guddall (Questionable)
- Thongla-Iad Warneryd (Missing Player)
- Tonnessen (Questionable)
Valerenga
- 1Hedvall O.
- 2Finnsson
- 3Sjatil
- 4Olsen
- 5Tshiembe
- 8Bjordal H.
- 10Lange
- 17Grundetjern
- 28Westergaard
- 77Haren
- 90Saeter
- Bully (Missing Player)
- Sjoeng (Questionable)
- Thorvaldsen (Questionable)
League table
Norway. Eliteserien| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 29:10 | 27 |
| 2 | Tromso | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 18:14 | 25 |
| 3 |  Bodo-Glimt | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28:11 | 23 |
| 4 |  Lillestrom | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 17:11 | 19 |
| 5 |  Molde | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18:13 | 19 |
| 6 |  HamKam | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17:16 | 17 |
| 7 |  Sarpsborg 08 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 13:16 | 14 |
| 8 |  Sandefjord | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 10:13 | 14 |
| 9 | Valerenga | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 13:17 | 14 |
| 10 |  Fredrikstad | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15:20 | 14 |
| 11 |  Brann | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 24:20 | 13 |
| 12 |  KFUM-Kameratene | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12:17 | 12 |
| 13 |  Aalesunds | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 15:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Kristiansund BK | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 11:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Rosenborg | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 9:18 | 9 |
| 16 |  IK Start | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 13:28 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.