Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas vs Santos: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Botafogo de Futebol e Regatasvs
SantosThe model puts Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas at 47%. The model leans toward Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas.
- +Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Santos have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas is priced at 2.035.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas at 47%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Santos at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas. Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas is priced at 2.035. The draw is priced at 3.56. Santos is priced at 3.56.
Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Santos have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Santos have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Santos are on 3 wins in a row.
Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas average 2 goals per game this season. Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas average 47% possession. Santos average 1 goals per game this season. Santos average 46% possession.
The model gives 56% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas or Santos?
Our model rates Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas vs Santos?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas wins, 3 draws, 1 Santos wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 30:13 | 41 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 31:16 | 34 |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 28:23 | 31 |
| 4 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 24:18 | 30 |
| 5 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 25:19 | 29 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25:23 | 26 |
| 7 |  Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Sao Paulo | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 23:20 | 25 |
| 9 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 22:23 | 24 |
| 10 |  Corinthians Paulista | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18:19 | 24 |
| 11 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24:28 | 24 |
| 12 | Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 31:31 | 22 |
| 13 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 21:25 | 22 |
| 14 |  Sport Club Internacional | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 21:22 | 21 |
| 15 | Santos | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 26:29 | 21 |
| 16 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 20:23 | 21 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 22:29 | 20 |
| 18 |  Clube do Remo | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 21:29 | 18 |
| 19 |  Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 18:24 | 16 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 17 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 17:33 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.