EC Vitoria Salvador vs CR Vasco da Gama: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
EC Vitoria Salvadorvs
CR Vasco da GamaThe model puts EC Vitoria Salvador at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +EC Vitoria Salvador score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Recent form favours EC Vitoria Salvador.
- −CR Vasco da Gama creates more chances (12 vs 16 shots per game).
- +The head-to-head record favours EC Vitoria Salvador (4-0-2).
- −CR Vasco da Gama controls more of the ball (45% vs 52%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- EC Vitoria Salvador have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- CR Vasco da Gama have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- EC Vitoria Salvador have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- EC Vitoria Salvador is priced at 2.375.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts EC Vitoria Salvador at 44%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts CR Vasco da Gama at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. EC Vitoria Salvador is priced at 2.375. The draw is priced at 3.26. CR Vasco da Gama is priced at 3.08.
EC Vitoria Salvador have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. CR Vasco da Gama have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
EC Vitoria Salvador have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. CR Vasco da Gama have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
EC Vitoria Salvador average 2 goals per game this season. EC Vitoria Salvador average 45% possession. CR Vasco da Gama average 1 goals per game this season. CR Vasco da Gama average 52% possession.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, EC Vitoria Salvador or CR Vasco da Gama?
Our model rates EC Vitoria Salvador as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for EC Vitoria Salvador vs CR Vasco da Gama?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 EC Vitoria Salvador wins, 0 draws, 2 CR Vasco da Gama wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 30:13 | 41 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 31:16 | 34 |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 28:23 | 31 |
| 4 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 24:18 | 30 |
| 5 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 25:19 | 29 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25:23 | 26 |
| 7 |  Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Sao Paulo | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 23:20 | 25 |
| 9 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 22:23 | 24 |
| 10 |  Corinthians Paulista | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18:19 | 24 |
| 11 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24:28 | 24 |
| 12 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 31:31 | 22 |
| 13 | EC Vitoria Salvador | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 21:25 | 22 |
| 14 |  Sport Club Internacional | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 21:22 | 21 |
| 15 |  Santos | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 26:29 | 21 |
| 16 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 20:23 | 21 |
| 17 | CR Vasco da Gama | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 22:29 | 20 |
| 18 |  Clube do Remo | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 21:29 | 18 |
| 19 |  Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 18:24 | 16 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 17 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 17:33 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.