Fluminense vs Red Bull Bragantino: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Fluminensevs
Red Bull BragantinoThe model puts Fluminense at 51%. The model leans toward Fluminense. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Fluminense score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Fluminense controls more of the ball (60% vs 49%).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Fluminense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Red Bull Bragantino have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fluminense have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Fluminense is priced at 1.944.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Fluminense at 51%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Red Bull Bragantino at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Fluminense. Fluminense is priced at 1.944. The draw is priced at 3.38. Red Bull Bragantino is priced at 4.12.
Fluminense have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Red Bull Bragantino have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Fluminense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Red Bull Bragantino have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Fluminense average 2 goals per game this season. Fluminense average 60% possession. Red Bull Bragantino average 1 goals per game this season. Red Bull Bragantino average 49% possession.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fluminense or Red Bull Bragantino?
Our model rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Red Bull Bragantino?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Fluminense wins, 1 draws, 3 Red Bull Bragantino wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 30:13 | 41 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 31:16 | 34 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 28:23 | 31 |
| 4 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 24:18 | 30 |
| 5 | Red Bull Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 25:19 | 29 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25:23 | 26 |
| 7 |  Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Sao Paulo | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 23:20 | 25 |
| 9 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 22:23 | 24 |
| 10 |  Corinthians Paulista | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18:19 | 24 |
| 11 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24:28 | 24 |
| 12 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 31:31 | 22 |
| 13 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 21:25 | 22 |
| 14 |  Sport Club Internacional | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 21:22 | 21 |
| 15 |  Santos | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 26:29 | 21 |
| 16 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 20:23 | 21 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 22:29 | 20 |
| 18 |  Clube do Remo | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 21:29 | 18 |
| 19 |  Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 18:24 | 16 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 17 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 17:33 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.