Democrata de Sete Lagoas vs Villa Nova AC: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Democrata de Sete Lagoasvs
Villa Nova ACThe model puts Democrata de Sete Lagoas at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Villa Nova AC.
- +The head-to-head record favours Democrata de Sete Lagoas (3-0-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Democrata de Sete Lagoas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Villa Nova AC have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Democrata de Sete Lagoas have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Democrata de Sete Lagoas is priced at 2.18.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Democrata de Sete Lagoas at 41%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Villa Nova AC at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Democrata de Sete Lagoas is priced at 2.18. The draw is priced at 2.875. Villa Nova AC is priced at 3.395.
Democrata de Sete Lagoas have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Democrata de Sete Lagoas have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Villa Nova AC have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Democrata de Sete Lagoas or Villa Nova AC?
Our model rates Democrata de Sete Lagoas as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Democrata de Sete Lagoas vs Villa Nova AC?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 3 Democrata de Sete Lagoas wins, 0 draws, 0 Villa Nova AC wins.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Mineiro. Division 2| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Uberaba | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:6 | 11 |
| 2 |  Boa Esporte Clube | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | 9 |
| 3 |  CA Patrocinense | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7:5 | 8 |
| 4 |  EC Mamore | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5:6 | 7 |
| 5 |  Associacao Atletica Caldense | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2:4 | 6 |
| 6 |  Guarani EC Minas Gerais | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:8 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.