CA Patrocinense vs Boa Esporte Clube: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
CA Patrocinensevs
Boa Esporte ClubeThe model puts CA Patrocinense at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Boa Esporte Clube.
- +The head-to-head record favours CA Patrocinense (5-0-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- CA Patrocinense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Boa Esporte Clube have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- CA Patrocinense have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- CA Patrocinense is priced at 2.57.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts CA Patrocinense at 39%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Boa Esporte Clube at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. CA Patrocinense is priced at 2.57. The draw is priced at 2.89. Boa Esporte Clube is priced at 2.65.
CA Patrocinense have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Boa Esporte Clube have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
CA Patrocinense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. CA Patrocinense are on 2 wins in a row. Boa Esporte Clube have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, CA Patrocinense or Boa Esporte Clube?
Our model rates CA Patrocinense as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for CA Patrocinense vs Boa Esporte Clube?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 5 CA Patrocinense wins, 0 draws, 1 Boa Esporte Clube wins.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Mineiro. Division 2| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Uberaba | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:6 | 11 |
| 2 | Boa Esporte Clube | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | 9 |
| 3 | CA Patrocinense | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7:5 | 8 |
| 4 |  EC Mamore | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5:6 | 7 |
| 5 |  Associacao Atletica Caldense | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2:4 | 6 |
| 6 |  Guarani EC Minas Gerais | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:8 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.