South Africa vs Canada: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
South Africavs
CanadaThe model puts Canada at 54%. The model leans toward Canada. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Canada.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- South Africa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Canada have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- South Africa have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Canada is priced at 1.779.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 17 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts South Africa at 21%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Canada at 54%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Canada. South Africa is priced at 5.38. The draw is priced at 3.74. Canada is priced at 1.779.
South Africa have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
South Africa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Canada have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
South Africa average 1 goals per game this season. South Africa average 31% possession. Canada average 1 goals per game this season. Canada average 45% possession.
The model gives 39% for both teams to score. The model gives 36% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, South Africa or Canada?
Our model rates Canada as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for South Africa vs Canada?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 South Africa wins, 0 draws, 0 Canada wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.