Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin vs Boca Juniors: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Club Atletico Sarmiento Juninvs
Boca JuniorsThe model puts Boca Juniors at 57%. The model leans toward Boca Juniors. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin.
- +The head-to-head record favours Boca Juniors (1-1-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Boca Juniors is priced at 1.719.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin at 16%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Boca Juniors at 57%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Boca Juniors. Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin is priced at 5.66. The draw is priced at 3.33. Boca Juniors is priced at 1.719.
Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Boca Juniors have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Boca Juniors have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin or Boca Juniors?
Our model rates Boca Juniors as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin vs Boca Juniors?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin wins, 1 draws, 4 Boca Juniors wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.