San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Deportivo Riestra: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
San Lorenzo de Almagrovs
Deportivo RiestraThe model puts San Lorenzo de Almagro at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Deportivo Riestra.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- San Lorenzo de Almagro have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Riestra have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- San Lorenzo de Almagro have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- San Lorenzo de Almagro is priced at 2.393.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts San Lorenzo de Almagro at 38%. The model puts the draw at 32%. The model puts Deportivo Riestra at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. San Lorenzo de Almagro is priced at 2.393. The draw is priced at 2.887. Deportivo Riestra is priced at 3.4.
San Lorenzo de Almagro have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Deportivo Riestra have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
San Lorenzo de Almagro have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo Riestra have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, San Lorenzo de Almagro or Deportivo Riestra?
Our model rates San Lorenzo de Almagro as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for San Lorenzo de Almagro vs Deportivo Riestra?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 1 San Lorenzo de Almagro wins, 2 draws, 1 Deportivo Riestra wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.