Netherlands vs Morocco: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Netherlandsvs
MoroccoThe model puts Netherlands at 44%. The model leans toward Netherlands. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Morocco.
- −The head-to-head record favours Morocco (1-0-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Netherlands have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Morocco have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Netherlands have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Netherlands is priced at 2.11.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Netherlands at 44%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Morocco at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Netherlands. Netherlands is priced at 2.11. The draw is priced at 3.4. Morocco is priced at 3.825.
Netherlands have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Morocco have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Netherlands have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Morocco have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Netherlands average 4 goals per game this season. Netherlands average 55% possession. Morocco average 1 goals per game this season. Morocco average 54% possession.
The model gives 78% for both teams to score. The model gives 81% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Netherlands or Morocco?
Our model rates Netherlands as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Netherlands vs Morocco?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Netherlands wins, 0 draws, 2 Morocco wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.