Argentina vs Cape Verde: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Argentinavs
Cape VerdeThe model puts Argentina at 83%. The model leans toward Argentina. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Argentina is priced at 1.185.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| 2 | 14 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 15 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 12 | 5 | ||||
| 5 | 8 | 3 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Argentina at 83%. The model puts the draw at 12%. The model puts Cape Verde at 5%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-0.
The market leans toward Argentina. Argentina is priced at 1.185. The draw is priced at 8. Cape Verde is priced at 21.
Argentina average 3 goals per game this season. Argentina average 50% possession. Cape Verde average 1 goals per game this season. Cape Verde average 30% possession.
The model gives 31% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Argentina or Cape Verde?
Our model rates Argentina as the most likely outcome at 83% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Argentina vs Cape Verde?
A scoreline around 3-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.