Australia vs Egypt: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Australiavs
EgyptThe model puts Egypt at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Australia.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Australia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Egypt have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Australia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Egypt is priced at 2.548.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Australia at 32%. The model puts the draw at 31%. The model puts Egypt at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Australia is priced at 3.37. The draw is priced at 3.065. Egypt is priced at 2.548.
Australia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Australia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Egypt have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Australia average 2 goals per game this season. Australia average 28% possession. Egypt average 2 goals per game this season. Egypt average 51% possession.
The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Australia or Egypt?
Our model rates Egypt as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Australia vs Egypt?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Australia wins, 0 draws, 0 Egypt wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.