Belgium vs Senegal: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Belgiumvs
SenegalThe model puts Belgium at 45%. The model leans toward Belgium. Confidence: low.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Belgium is priced at 2.166.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Belgium at 45%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Senegal at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Belgium. Belgium is priced at 2.166. The draw is priced at 3.375. Senegal is priced at 3.885.
Belgium average 1 goals per game this season. Belgium average 62% possession. Senegal average 2 goals per game this season. Senegal average 52% possession.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Belgium or Senegal?
Our model rates Belgium as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Belgium vs Senegal?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.