Keflavík vs Knattspyrnufelagid Fram: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Keflavíkvs
Knattspyrnufelagid FramThe model puts Knattspyrnufelagid Fram at 48%. The model leans toward Knattspyrnufelagid Fram. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Keflavík.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Keflavík have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Knattspyrnufelagid Fram have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Keflavík have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Knattspyrnufelagid Fram is priced at 1.84.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Keflavík at 31%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Knattspyrnufelagid Fram at 48%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Knattspyrnufelagid Fram. Keflavík is priced at 3.395. The draw is priced at 4.25. Knattspyrnufelagid Fram is priced at 1.84.
Keflavík have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Knattspyrnufelagid Fram have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Keflavík have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Keflavík are on 3 wins in a row. Knattspyrnufelagid Fram have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Keflavík or Knattspyrnufelagid Fram?
Our model rates Knattspyrnufelagid Fram as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Keflavík vs Knattspyrnufelagid Fram?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Keflavík wins, 1 draws, 2 Knattspyrnufelagid Fram wins.
Odds movement
League table
Iceland. Urvalsdeild| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vikingur Reykjavik | 14 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 48:9 | 40 |
| 2 |  Knattspyrnufelag Reykjavíkur | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 48:34 | 29 |
| 3 | Knattspyrnufelagid Fram | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 31:24 | 26 |
| 4 |  Breidablik UBK | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 32:25 | 22 |
| 5 |  Valur | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 24:27 | 19 |
| 6 |  Stjarnan | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 28:31 | 15 |
| 7 |  Íþrottabandalag Vestmannaeyja | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 22:26 | 15 |
| 8 | Keflavík | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17:23 | 15 |
| 9 |  IA Akranes | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 17:25 | 15 |
| 10 |  Knattspyrnufelag Akureyrar | 13 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 19:28 | 10 |
| 11 |  Hafnarfjordur | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 18:31 | 8 |
| 12 |  Tor Akureyri | 13 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 14:35 | 8 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.