Canada vs Morocco: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Canadavs
MoroccoThe model puts Morocco at 55%. The model leans toward Morocco. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Morocco.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Canada have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Morocco have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Morocco is priced at 1.858.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Canada at 20%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Morocco at 55%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Morocco. Canada is priced at 4.875. The draw is priced at 3.675. Morocco is priced at 1.858.
Morocco have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Canada have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Morocco have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Morocco are on 3 wins in a row.
Canada average 4 goals per game this season. Canada average 70% possession. Morocco average 1 goals per game this season. Morocco average 60% possession.
The model gives 72% for both teams to score. The model gives 81% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Canada or Morocco?
Our model rates Morocco as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Canada vs Morocco?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 0 Canada wins, 0 draws, 2 Morocco wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.