CF Montreal vs Toronto: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
CF Montrealvs
TorontoThe model puts CF Montreal at 46%. The model leans toward CF Montreal. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +CF Montreal score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +CF Montreal creates more chances (14 vs 10 shots per game).
- −CF Montreal are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Toronto are dealing with notable absentees.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- CF Montreal have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Toronto have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- CF Montreal have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- CF Montreal will be without Carmona, Davis Bo., Owusu P..
- Toronto will be without Cimermancic, Stefanovic, Pereira Mat., Osorio J., Wingo H..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts CF Montreal at 46%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Toronto at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. CF Montreal is priced at 2.26. The draw is priced at 3.54. Toronto is priced at 3.048.
CF Montreal have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Toronto have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
CF Montreal have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Toronto have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
CF Montreal average 2 goals per game this season. CF Montreal average 45% possession. Toronto average 1 goals per game this season. Toronto average 48% possession.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, CF Montreal or Toronto?
Our model rates CF Montreal as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for CF Montreal vs Toronto?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 CF Montreal wins, 1 draws, 2 Toronto wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.