Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Chicago Firevs
Vancouver WhitecapsThe model puts Chicago Fire at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Chicago Fire creates more chances (18 vs 16 shots per game).
- −Chicago Fire are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Vancouver Whitecaps are dealing with notable absentees.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Vancouver Whitecaps have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps will be without Berhalter, Cabrera Nakamura, Halbouni, Sabbi, Priso-Mbongue R., Sabaly.
- Chicago Fire will be without Bamba J., Barroso, Russo Franco.
- The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
Vancouver Whitecaps have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Chicago Fire have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Vancouver Whitecaps will be without Berhalter, Cabrera Nakamura, Halbouni, Sabbi, Priso-Mbongue R., Sabaly. Chicago Fire will be without Bamba J., Barroso, Russo Franco.
Chicago Fire average 2 goals per game this season. Vancouver Whitecaps average 2 goals per game this season. Chicago Fire take 18 shots per game. Vancouver Whitecaps take 16 shots per game.
The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Chicago Fire or Vancouver Whitecaps?
Our model rates Chicago Fire as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Chicago Fire wins, 1 draws, 2 Vancouver Whitecaps wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.