Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Chicago Firevs
Vancouver WhitecapsThe model puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Chicago Fire creates more chances (18 vs 16 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Chicago Fire have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Vancouver Whitecaps is priced at 2.344.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Chicago Fire at 36%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Chicago Fire is priced at 2.78. The draw is priced at 3.74. Vancouver Whitecaps is priced at 2.344.
Chicago Fire have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Vancouver Whitecaps have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Chicago Fire have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Vancouver Whitecaps have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
Chicago Fire average 2 goals per game this season. Chicago Fire average 55% possession. Vancouver Whitecaps average 2 goals per game this season. Vancouver Whitecaps average 55% possession.
The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model gives 70% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Chicago Fire or Vancouver Whitecaps?
Our model rates Vancouver Whitecaps as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Chicago Fire wins, 1 draws, 2 Vancouver Whitecaps wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 |  Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 4 |  Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 5 |  Los Angeles | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 24:17 | 24 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 17:11 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 |  Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22:22 | 20 |
| 10 |  San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 12 |  St. Louis City | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 16:20 | 16 |
| 13 |  Portland Timbers | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 22:28 | 14 |
| 14 |  Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 14 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 14:36 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.