Paraguay vs France: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Paraguayvs
FranceThe model puts France at 79%. The model leans toward France. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours France.
- −The head-to-head record favours Paraguay (2-2-0).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Paraguay have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- France have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Paraguay have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- France is priced at 1.23.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 7 |
| 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Paraguay at 7%. The model puts the draw at 13%. The model puts France at 79%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-3.
The market leans toward France. Paraguay is priced at 16.5. The draw is priced at 7.06. France is priced at 1.23.
Paraguay have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Paraguay have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. France have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Paraguay average 0 goals per game this season. Paraguay average 44% possession. France average 4 goals per game this season. France average 57% possession.
The model gives 38% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Paraguay or France?
Our model rates France as the most likely outcome at 79% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Paraguay vs France?
A scoreline around 0-3 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 2 Paraguay wins, 2 draws, 0 France wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.