Deportivo Maldonado vs Albion Montevideo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Deportivo Maldonadovs
Albion MontevideoThe model puts Deportivo Maldonado at 48%. The model leans toward Deportivo Maldonado. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Deportivo Maldonado.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Deportivo Maldonado have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Albion Montevideo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Maldonado have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Deportivo Maldonado is priced at 2.046.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Deportivo Maldonado at 48%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Albion Montevideo at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Deportivo Maldonado. Deportivo Maldonado is priced at 2.046. The draw is priced at 3.3. Albion Montevideo is priced at 3.595.
Deportivo Maldonado have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Albion Montevideo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Deportivo Maldonado have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo Maldonado are on 2 wins in a row. Albion Montevideo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Deportivo Maldonado or Albion Montevideo?
Our model rates Deportivo Maldonado as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Deportivo Maldonado vs Albion Montevideo?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Deportivo Maldonado wins, 1 draws, 3 Albion Montevideo wins.
League table
Uruguay. Primera Division (Torneo Intermedio)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Central Espanol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Cerro Largo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Racing Club de Montevideo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Club Atletico Boston River | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  C.A. Cerro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Defensor Sporting | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.