Liverpool Montevideo vs C.A. Cerro: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Liverpool Montevideovs
C.A. CerroThe model puts Liverpool Montevideo at 56%. The model leans toward Liverpool Montevideo. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Liverpool Montevideo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- C.A. Cerro have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Liverpool Montevideo have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Liverpool Montevideo is priced at 1.65.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Liverpool Montevideo at 56%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts C.A. Cerro at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Liverpool Montevideo. Liverpool Montevideo is priced at 1.65. The draw is priced at 3.545. C.A. Cerro is priced at 5.5.
Liverpool Montevideo have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. C.A. Cerro have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Liverpool Montevideo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. C.A. Cerro have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Liverpool Montevideo or C.A. Cerro?
Our model rates Liverpool Montevideo as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Liverpool Montevideo vs C.A. Cerro?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Liverpool Montevideo wins, 2 draws, 2 C.A. Cerro wins.
Odds movement
League table
Uruguay. Primera Division (Torneo Intermedio)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 9 |
| 2 |  Cerro Largo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:1 | 7 |
| 3 |  Central Espanol | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 7 |
| 4 |  Racing Club de Montevideo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:1 | 6 |
| 5 | Liverpool Montevideo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2:2 | 5 |
| 6 |  Club Atletico Boston River | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5:6 | 4 |
| 7 | C.A. Cerro | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2:7 | 3 |
| 8 |  Defensor Sporting | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2:5 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.