Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cerro Largovs
Defensor SportingThe model puts Defensor Sporting at 35%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Cerro Largo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Defensor Sporting have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cerro Largo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Defensor Sporting is priced at 2.616.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Cerro Largo at 33%. The model puts the draw at 32%. The model puts Defensor Sporting at 35%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Cerro Largo is priced at 2.854. The draw is priced at 2.968. Defensor Sporting is priced at 2.616.
Cerro Largo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Defensor Sporting have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Cerro Largo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Defensor Sporting have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cerro Largo or Defensor Sporting?
Our model rates Defensor Sporting as the most likely outcome at 35% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Cerro Largo wins, 1 draws, 2 Defensor Sporting wins.
Odds movement
League table
Uruguay. Primera Division (Torneo Intermedio)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 10 |
| 2 |  Central Espanol | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4:3 | 8 |
| 3 | Cerro Largo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:1 | 7 |
| 4 |  Racing Club de Montevideo | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3:2 | 7 |
| 5 |  C.A. Cerro | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4:8 | 6 |
| 6 |  Club Atletico Boston River | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5:6 | 5 |
| 7 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3:4 | 5 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2:5 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.