Dundalk vs Drogheda United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Dundalkvs
Drogheda UnitedThe model puts Dundalk at 56%. The model leans toward Dundalk. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Dundalk are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Drogheda United are dealing with notable absentees.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Dundalk have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Drogheda United have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dundalk have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Dundalk will be without Garbett, Kearns, O'Keeffe, Mullen Da..
- Drogheda United will be without Davis, Lambe, Kruse, Quinn An..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Dundalk at 56%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Drogheda United at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Dundalk. Dundalk is priced at 1.66. The draw is priced at 3.88. Drogheda United is priced at 4.835.
Dundalk have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Drogheda United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Dundalk have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Drogheda United have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Dundalk or Drogheda United?
Our model rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Dundalk wins, 3 draws, 2 Drogheda United wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Dundalk
- 1Minogue
- 3Burns Bo.
- 6Dervin
- 7Daryl Horgan
- 9Arubi
- 11Teahan
- 17Tracey
- 22Wilson
- 24Cornwall
- 27McDaid Dec.
- 31Wilson
- Garbett (Missing Player)
- Kearns (Missing Player)
- O'Keeffe (Missing Player)
- Mullen Da. (Missing Player)
Drogheda United
- 1Dennison
- 2Agbaje
- 3Kane Co.
- 5Burnie
- 7Bucknor J.
- 10Kavanagh
- 11Oluwa
- 14Doyle Ma.
- 17Farrell S.
- 19Brennan R.
- 22Keeley
- Davis (Missing Player)
- Lambe (Missing Player)
- Kruse (Missing Player)
- Quinn An. (Missing Player)
League table
Ireland. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shamrock Rovers | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 40:22 | 50 |
| 2 |  Bohemian Dublin | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40:27 | 43 |
| 3 |  St Patrick's Athletic | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 38:19 | 41 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 37:34 | 35 |
| 5 |  Shelbourne | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 35:35 | 34 |
| 6 |  Derry City | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 32:31 | 29 |
| 7 |  Galway | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 29:37 | 24 |
| 8 | Drogheda United | 23 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 27:40 | 22 |
| 9 |  Waterford | 23 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 32:46 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sligo Rovers | 23 | 5 | 13 | 5 | 18:37 | 20 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.