Waterford vs St Patrick's Athletic: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Waterfordvs
St Patrick's AthleticThe model puts St Patrick's Athletic at 57%. The model leans toward St Patrick's Athletic. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours St Patrick's Athletic.
- −The head-to-head record favours Waterford (4-2-0).
- +Waterford are dealing with notable absentees.
- −St Patrick's Athletic are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Waterford have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St Patrick's Athletic have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Waterford have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Waterford will be without McLaughlin, Armstrong.
- St Patrick's Athletic will be without Boyce R., Elbouzedi, Mata M..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 3 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Waterford at 22%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts St Patrick's Athletic at 57%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward St Patrick's Athletic. Waterford is priced at 4.875. The draw is priced at 4.1. St Patrick's Athletic is priced at 1.62.
Waterford have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Waterford have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. St Patrick's Athletic have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. St Patrick's Athletic are on 3 wins in a row.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Waterford or St Patrick's Athletic?
Our model rates St Patrick's Athletic as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Waterford vs St Patrick's Athletic?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Waterford wins, 2 draws, 0 St Patrick's Athletic wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Waterford
- 1McMullan
- 2Houston J.
- 3Couto
- 4Johnson
- 5Mahon J.
- 9Amond
- 13Long K.
- 15Heeney L.
- 16Cann
- 18Lonergan
- 27McMenamy
- McLaughlin (Missing Player)
- Armstrong (Missing Player)
St Patrick's Athletic
- 1Rogers D.
- 2Hoare S.
- 4Redmond J.
- 6Lennon J.
- 9Keena A.
- 10Leavy K.
- 11McClelland
- 17Palmer R.
- 23Brown James.
- 24Turner
- 27Edmondson
- Boyce R. (Missing Player)
- Elbouzedi (Missing Player)
- Mata M. (Missing Player)
League table
Ireland. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shamrock Rovers | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 40:22 | 50 |
| 2 |  Bohemian Dublin | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40:27 | 43 |
| 3 | St Patrick's Athletic | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 38:19 | 41 |
| 4 |  Dundalk | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 37:34 | 35 |
| 5 |  Shelbourne | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 35:35 | 34 |
| 6 |  Derry City | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 32:31 | 29 |
| 7 |  Galway | 22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 29:37 | 24 |
| 8 |  Drogheda United | 23 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 27:40 | 22 |
| 9 | Waterford | 23 | 4 | 11 | 8 | 32:46 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sligo Rovers | 23 | 5 | 13 | 5 | 18:37 | 20 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.